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Boeing about to trap the next round of bag holders.
Prolly so. Gotta pump that Max re-certification! Which really will just put them back where they SHOULD have been a long damn time ago SMH....
 

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Well I somehow f'ed that up. I didn't change my original limit sell, never hit submit and it sold at $28.12, F ME, oh well I netted $376 profit lol. When I scalp I look for 1% swing so thats what I got, time for another one hopefully, locked in green is locked in green lol.
 

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Discussion Starter #2,985 (Edited)
Tri, you initially planned on 800 shares of Tesla through end of today,

You made $36k in 24 hours, but then changed your plan and holding out for $1020+?

Yikes, you might need some depends at this rate.
Circling back around because I think Larry Az's post is a really good one. It speaks to the very difficult decision of when to pocket some quick gains and when to hold out.

In this case, it took a LOT longer for things to play out than I thought they would, but this morning the stock has finally broken cleanly thru the $1019 level, where (for reasons I do not really understand), it had a huge amount of upside resistance.

The great thing about a break-thru of a resistance point is that when the DO finally happen, there's generally plenty more upside. How much? That's always hard to say, but one thing is for sure - you should - statistically speaking - NEVER sell at just a little over the breakthru price - you'll likely miss out on some nice upside gains. Once it breaks thru, it has to hold and form a base. What I mean by a "base" is that when a stock hits levels it has never seen before, there really aren't any people or firms holding the stock at that level. So there's not much known about how resolute they are, or what their downside limits are, and so on. But as the stock trades at the new level for a while, there tends to be more and more ownership at that level. It forms a foundation upon which you can build, and creates additional price stability.

What I like to see is for a stock to break thru to a new trading range and stick in that range for a good while. By doing so, you bring a lot of price stability to the new range, and you can hold the stock with more confidence if it has some ups and downs along the way. This ALL assumes you have done your homework, that you know what's going on, and that the stock and the company are on good footing otherwise.

So today's breakout is precisely what I was looking for. Now I need to decide where and when I want to trim the trade I made so I am ready to strike again when another opportunity presents itself.

And back on the trade results - yes, $36k in 24 hours was a sweet deal. And as you can see - the stock had some pretty wild gyrations since I opened the trade. If I were a lot more skilled at day trading or short term trading, I could have played $20+ price swings up AND down and made a hella lot more than this trade did. But I'm just not that good at sniping back and forth. I'm not fast enough, nor am I good enough at reading the SUPER short term moves. Some people are - they tend to be guys that are really skilled at watching the technicals. Maybe someone on the forum here knows that side of the fence better and can share their wisdom.

So where I am on this trade is:

Cost basis of $935, give or take. Current price is around $1075-$1080 (changing by the minute obv). That's roughly a 15% gain. Purchase date was 06/12, or a little over two weeks ago. And for those that want the absolute amounts, its about a $110,000-$115,000 gain on the 800 shares I bought. But as Lionheart_CHP and others have noted - its an important skill to be able to think about and express your trades and investments in terms of percentages and relative values.

Honestly this move today caught me a little off guard. I actually went in to enter a sell order several times today, and before I could even complete the data entry, the price moved up enough to cause me to back off. I fully expect at some point for people to pull the trigger and lock in some gains, which might cause some rapid spikes down in price - but I'm watching the volume of shares traded in relationship to price movement. As long as I am seeing strong volume happening in line with sweeping upticks in price, I'll hang in there.

Next week Tesla will announce Q2 deliveries I think - that's a point at which the number delivered could produce a pretty substantial swing in the price. It might be a solid indicator (either FOR or AGAINST) whether or not Tesla can show another consequtive quarter of profits. Many people are following this as it would make Tesla a prime (nearly a shoe-in) candidate for inclusion in the S&P 500. Many see that inclusion as positive for the stock.

Because of all that, at these price levels I will probably sell some of the 800 shares. Likely either 1/3rd or half of them, pocket those gains, and let the rest ride thru delivery numbers and Q2 financial results.
 

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Sold 300 of my TSLA at $1080 right before the close (that's 1/3rd of a lot of 1000 shares I added. The 800 two weeks ago plus 200 I bought at the end of May).

Wanted to pocket some gains ahead of the release of Q2 deliveries next week.
 

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Tri, you are definitely a baller!!!


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Giant balls Tri gambling..........


Congrats!!


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Giant balls Tri gambling..........


Congrats!!


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"Calculated Risk"...

So yes - no guarantees on where the stock price will go. But I did roll this up based on data available online on Reddit, Twitter, and other platforms about what customers were reporting. I suspected that Model Y deliveries were above expectations as well as China deliveries. I ventured a guess that this might become better and more widely understood.

Often getting an edge means getting info a little sooner than the analysts and wider audience does. If you guess right you can catch a move before others do. And sometimes a stock is just temporarily mid-priced because of good old fear, greed, and other factors...

But recognize this is a lot like counting cards in Vegas. It doesn't tell you how any given hand will play out. But it tells you when to bet big. If you do this repeatedly over time, you'll generally come out well ahead even when the game is generally rigged against you.

IOW - fully expect that the house will normally stack the odds for the average player to lose. But with a little recon and understanding of the odds, it IS possible to beat the house.

And we I get it wrong, I'll be transparent about that too...
 

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New position today in GOGO.

In at $3.00, risk/profit target +/- $0.50.
Size = 2000 shares per 100k. Risk 1%.

(2000 * $0.5 = $1,000 so 1% max risk)

(2000 * $3.00 = 6,000 so roughly 6% of my portfolio)

146269


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Discussion Starter #2,991
New position today in GOGO.

In at $3.00, risk/profit target +/- $0.50.
Size = 2000 shares per 100k. Risk 1%.

(2000 * $0.5 = $1,000 so 1% max risk)

(2000 * $3.00 = 6,000 so roughly 6% of my portfolio)

View attachment 146269

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Private aviation super strong. Is Gogo mainly commercial?
 

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They do both, but I'm playing the transitional setup and pullback not the company per se.

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Discussion Starter #2,993 (Edited)
Giant balls Tri gambling..........

Congrats!!
Fixed it for ya...

And folks - this is why you should generally avoid buying OR selling ALL your shares in a given position at once. Today Tesla stock is roaring thru $1116 as I type this, another nice move up. Had I sold the entire lot of 1000 shares, I would have missed out on some gains. But locking in a profit well above my target was indeed a safe move. Basically, selling those 300 shares caused me to miss out on $9000 in gains (at current price), but it gave me a little safety net to allow the remaining 700 shares to ride...

Edit: I'm watching my "missed" gains now reach $15,000 in "lost" profit JUST on the 300 shares I sold yesterday - not even the full lot. But here's the deal: NEVER EVER have any sort of remorse or regret for taking a profit and locking in a good trade. That's a super good way to let emotions sneak into your trading and investing. DON'T DO IT! Have a plan, stick to it. If it doesnt work, adjust the plan, not your knee jerk response...

146275
 

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Discussion Starter #2,994
Options market says there's about a 10% chance that Tesla stock reaches $1200 tomorrow (Thursday). Giddyup
 

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Oh...and while everything else was going on, I missed Netflix hitting a new 52 week high. And what do stocks reaching new highs do? Go higher! I should have swung the money from those 300 shares of TSLA into a swing trade on Netflix but I missed a great entry point. Now the stock is pushing $485-$490.

Netflix is one of my largest positions because I've been in the stock for a really long time and rarely do I trim it I've only added during the harder dips. And so far nothing about my thesis has changed: no true competition and the rotation away from broadcast and to streaming is still in effect, but nowhere near complete.
 

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Ok...the bet played out. Tesla delivers 50% more vehicles than expected. Stock action this morning will likely be extremely volatile but at least in the right direction.
 

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Lol jesus Tesla priced in literally becoming the largest automaker with no bumps in the road. It is sooo disgustingly overpriced its not even funny anymore.
At this point any hiccups should send it way down. Or whenever the tulip mania wears off and people realize its not feasible for a very large population of normal people to buy Teslas. lol
 

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Those tulips are hot hot hot right now. But honestly there's money to be made



Until there's not.

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