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Opinions. Does this look like a bullish turn back up, or a fake out headed lower? Please reply. Thx.
This is a tough one because chart pattern history includes very few "pandemic-like" events. Normally things like unemployment go up for radically diff reasons for ex. So hard to rely as much on previous chart history to draw conclusions today...

My take: this is going to be a super-wildly volatile flag/pennant formation, with potentially some strips of the flag ripped off waving lower.

A few trillion in cash injected is NEVER bullish, but be ready for a second wave of insane vol and maybe some lows as Q2 data rolls in. NEW lows may happen if a second wave of C19 deaths begin to happen.

That said - all that money coming out of travel and other stocks isn't just going to sit. So I'm standing by Amazon, Nvidia/AMD/other semis&gaming chips, and largely tech stocks as a whole. A certain amount of money pulled from weak areas will find it's way here and I dont think these stocks will suffer anywhere near as much, if at all.

JMHO, trade carefully.
 

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Simple thesis on Amazon:

Amazon took some punishment because they except to spend a mint on Covid19 expenses in Q2.

My take: the longer term picture is more important. And that picture has a larger percent of workers working from home than ever before, by a fairly good margin. This will likely increase both the sustainable long term outlook for grocery, Amazon, and many other stocks that benefit from a more at-home oriented workforce.

Not reducing my position as it's already my 1st or 2and largest (trades places with Netflix daily...). But I will buy any serious dip.
 

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Just a tidbit of insider info that means nothing. Amazon just bought over 8000 shelves for their office locations that we service for PPE masks and hand sanitizer to help jump start getting workers back in the office. That as well as growing real-estate at an astonishing pace through all this.
 

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Not reducing my position as it's already my 1st or 2and largest (trades places with Netflix daily...). But I will buy any serious dip.
What would you consider to be a serious dip to increase your stake? Or an entry point for someone who stupidly let it go? It was a while back.
 

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I wish I could double like this comment.

Tulip mania almost.

We already have been going through this in a way since the last recession. They lowered interest rates (smart) but then never ended up fully pulling the bandaid off again to raise interest rates once it wasn't necessary because the economy was booming for a decade...
Then we entered this covid shutdown while being already at full throttle (relatively low interest rates) so they had to go completely batshit insane in QE immediately.

Now we have to somehow in the future get weaned off of sweet sweet unlimited money printing AND raise interest rates from zero again...I don't see how this ends well in any way.

We have abused our status as the world's commodity currency so our money printing inflation gets diluted through the whole world's money supply. As soon as the USD stops being the world currency we would be fuuuuuuuuuuucked into hyperinflation.
 

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I wish I could double like this comment.

Tulip mania almost.

We already have been going through this in a way since the last recession. They lowered interest rates (smart) but then never ended up fully pulling the bandaid off again to raise interest rates once it wasn't necessary because the economy was booming for a decade...
Then we entered this covid shutdown while being already at full throttle (relatively low interest rates) so they had to go completely batshit insane in QE immediately.

Now we have to somehow in the future get weaned off of sweet sweet unlimited money printing AND raise interest rates from zero again...I don't see how this ends well in any way.

We have abused our status as the world's commodity currency so our money printing inflation gets diluted through the whole world's money supply. As soon as the USD stops being the world currency we would be fuuuuuuuuuuucked into hyperinflation.
Is this artificial stimulus and what is happening as a result a perk of being the world currency? I wonder if there's any benefit or if we can do what we are doing without it being as bad long term as one would imagine.
 

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Don't worry, it'll be the next president that crashed the markets and ruined the greatest market anyone's ever seen.

Sent from my Pixel 3a using Tapatalk
 

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Don't worry, it'll be the next president that crashed the markets and ruined the greatest market anyone's ever seen.

Sent from my Pixel 3a using Tapatalk
As is tradition. lol Its almost like there's a pattern to it......hmmm
 

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Is this artificial stimulus and what is happening as a result a perk of being the world currency? I wonder if there's any benefit or if we can do what we are doing without it being as bad long term as one would imagine.
Yes I would say we are able to "get away" with the crazy money printing for a lot longer before seeing large negative consequences because the USD is the global currency.
Other countries are not able to take such drastic measures and you can see their stock markets have not "recovered" as fast as ours.

No one knows for sure what will actually happen but its very hard to believe there will be no consequences.
 

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What would you consider to be a serious dip to increase your stake? Or an entry point for someone who stupidly let it go? It was a while back.
Legit question. For me it depends heavily on the stock/company in question.

But what makes this even more difficult is that the answer can change daily. What I think is a bargain price today might not be such a good deal tomorrow or next week. That's because new information and context is constantly coming out.

Your best strategy (JMHO!) is to have a list of stocks you would like to own more of. If they (or the market as a whole) suffers some kind of pullback, you'll want to understand why and determine if the recovery from whatever caused the drop is tolerable for your investment horizon.

And as a hedge, buy into your new positions in increasing steps. One thing most dips and recoveries have in common is that trading volume increases as price drops. This is generally because as price drops, people and firms buy larger and larger chunks, and you should too!

So that means theres no magic formula for how big the dip needs to be. If it drops...say 8%...maybe you add 10% to your stake. If it drops 12% from it's high, add another 15%. And if it drops 20% or more then scale in as much as you can afford.

This way, you haven't shot your entire wad on what turns out to be a small dip, and you'll have dry powder for the biggest impact/advantage.

Last - dont let perfection get in the way of "good enough". As you saw from me posting my buys from the last dip, some things I got in too soon and missed the lowest point. But I did ok over all. I missed NEE badly but did pretty good with MSFT and AMZN. Overall if you have 2-3 winners for every screw up you'll still beat the market handily!
 

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Hourly moving averages have bowtied down again in QQQ, SPY, and IWM. Not to be ignored, but the last few have been bought right back the next day. If this week ends poorly, I'd expect more downside to follow.

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Some really solid buy-on-close activity today. Firms clearly adding risk at the close on the back of several downside risk comments from Powell et al.
 

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I hit UAL this morning for a quick 3.5% swing, back to all cash until Monday. Won't have any play money settled to make a move tomorrow.
 

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Seeing some strength tick back into the markets this afternoon...glimmer of hope or head fake?
 

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I bought some SNAP and SPY puts a few days ago (expiring tomorrow) and so glad I sold this morning. I had a feeling it was going to reverse again today or tomorrow and wanted to take some profit for a change. I called it almost to the minute selling at 10am.

I debated buying calls after closing the puts because I like to think I have learned my lesson over the last month or 2 but I was had non stop meetings today so just stayed cash. No sense in being distracted all day or getting boned because I couldn't pay attention.
 

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I am mostly back to cash, except BABA, MSFT, and RENN (wow, mostly CN companies!). Trying to find a good long term hold now, a steady ETF, for about 40% of my cash. I'm going to wait a couple weeks and keep an eye out for dips and new economy trends.
 

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And of course Powell out today with some rosy comments. Futures trading sharply higher on words, of course....

But like I said...dont fight the fed. Either ride it or sideline for now IMHO.
 

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Quick swing trade on NVAX this morning for a 4.3% gain. Cracked $50 which I didn't see it dropping below for the day and jumped in. Rode another leg up as volume wasn't crazy and people weren't selling off. Left another 4% on the table as it stands currently but I don't like getting greedy with these pumped volatile meme stocks.

Edit: And another 5%, oh well, I'll take my nice chunk and smile for the rest of the week!
 
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