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5) Regarding the Tesla thread. Wait until GM and Ford start taking this segment seriously. Tesla will die. It may be a slow death, but die it will.
Ah man, you were doing so good, then you swerved out of your lane. (Best pun ever?)
I don't have any experience with Ford, but the way GM pretty much fucks up everything they touch (except the Corvette, knock on wood) leaves me no reason to think they have a chance of impacting Tesla. Hell, Porsche is the only company that has a product that even comes close and they just lost a comparison to Tesla. Granted, is was mostly on price, but other metrics that matter in the real world, it is the better package.
"And Tesla accurately predicted—or perhaps caused—the shift in cabin design where infotainment screens would come to define modern cars' interiors. The Model S's rear seat feels far larger than the Taycan's, sitting three back there versus the Porsche's two. Taller side glass makes it feel airier inside, too, and its rear cargo area is double that of the Porsche. Even with a larger battery pack and longer wheelbase, the Model S weighs nearly 250 pounds less than the Taycan..."
I hope GM can eventually compete in this space, but I don't have high expectations.
 

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Nah, Tesla is a tech company that builds shitty interiors and pretty awful looking appliances. Wait until a 1,000 HP Hummer shows Tesla how to build a proper truck, Volvo starts playing and Ford figures it out. Tesla hasn’t figured out how to finish a fiscal year profitably. Amazon got away with it because they owned the highway and the infrastructure. Tesla hasn’t even advanced battery technology to removed range anxiety. Tesla owns nothing and will soon be a middling company with unimaginative styling, weak interiors and overpriced appliances. If you can’t make money selling $150K Model S‘s you won’t find religion selling a mass market version.

As for Porsche, see 1-4 on my previous post.
 

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Nah, Tesla is a tech company that builds shitty interiors and pretty awful looking appliances. Wait until a 1,000 HP Hummer shows Tesla how to build a proper truck, Volvo starts playing and Ford figures it out. Tesla hasn’t figured out how to finish a fiscal year profitably. Amazon got away with it because they owned the highway and the infrastructure. Tesla hasn’t even advanced battery technology to removed range anxiety. Tesla owns nothing and will soon be a middling company with unimaginative styling, weak interiors and overpriced appliances. If you can’t make money selling $150K Model S‘s you won’t find religion selling a mass market version.
143903
 

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Look it up. model X and S sales are slowing to a crawl down 20%. Their best selling Model 3 has a ($5,900) profit and they’re burning through $1B in cash losses every year. How do you make it up? Volume? LOL that’s not how GAAP accounting works.
 

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Ring time? HA!

PORSCHE owns it.

I don't think one could fly around the ring any faster then this guy did:


WOW!!!!
This is an amazing lap. Car was pretty much built for this and is a pure race car. Super high strung hybrids are probably nearly unbeatable. I would say that over time the gas motor will get smaller if battery tech improves.

The ultimate non-race car hybrid in my view is the Koenigsegg Regera. No transmission, one gear. Electric motor on the crankshaft of a twin turbo V-8 driving the wheels thru a small reduction gear, plus two more electric motors directly on each rear wheel. 250mph, no gearbox, yet enough power and torque for rolling burnouts at 160mph.

Koenigsegg is one of the most impressive automakers - easily slaying VW/Audi/Porsche whenever they want. They are proof that there is zero advantage in being one of the "big boys". If you haven't been beaten by Christian it's simply because he hasn't decided to beat you yet.

Guess who Christian said inspired his design for the Regera? Guess what Christian owns as a daily driver? Hint: Its not a Koenigsegg. Or a Porsche. Or a Lambo or Ferarri.

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Tesla: We have a giant touchscreen that is fast and responsive that allows you to access most vehicle features.

Everyone else: We have a large new screen just like Tesla.


Tesla: We can go from 0-60 in 2.4 seconds.
Porsche 8 years later: We can too!

Tesla: We have an extensive fast charging network.
Everyone else: We are building one too!

Tesla: Our cars have OTA updates. We roll out new features all the time.
Everyone else: In 2021 some models with be updateable just like Tesla!

Tesla: Enjoy beautiful views with a full glass roof.
Porsche: We have this new thing called a full glass roof.


Are we sensing a pattern here folks? Call Teslas shitty cars. Call Musk a fraud. Say whatever you want, but if you think for one hot second that Tesla isn't the driving force behind not only EV's but innovation in general, you're totally blind.

Theres a reason Porsche bought a ton of Model S cars for their Taycan development and not Chevy Bolts. Theres a reason Mercedes tore apart a dozen or so Tesla cars when developing the EQC and EQ series of cars and not a Nissan Leaf.

And theres a reason Tesla is the dream car of choice for more people than any other. Yeah maybe its cache or status or whatever. But kids don't put posters of Lambos or Ferraris on their walls anymore, they put up a Tesla.

Like it or hate it, that's how shit is.

The whole "big boys are coming" song and dance is not only old, its embarrassing to anyone using it. It was said about SpaceX vs Boeing. Now we learn that Starliner has critical software and materials engineering defects that, like MCAS, could result in catastrophic loss of vehicle. But yeah - Boeing is the big boy.

A few years ago I had this crazy idea to use AI at my company. Everyone told me that was only for Facebook and Google and Silicon Valley companies with multi-billion dollar R&D budgets. But I had a solid rep and I managed to get funding. Two years later a small team of grad students and newly minted PhD's are creating systems that are far superior to crap we paid millions of dollars for. From that experience I've learned that a small but brilliant team CAN be competitive. They are fully capable of outmaneuvering far bigger players. Now you need the right strategy. You need the right players. Its not for everyone.

But the moment you underestimate a handful of truly savant-level thinkers and doers, you've already lost the war.

Now you don't build a company like Tesla without some showmanship. And certainly not without shooting big and probably missing the mark. But people love that shit. I'm tired of companies that are so scared to push the envelope that all you get is the expected, the "good enough", the "this is what sells".

I loved my V because it was irreverent. Because it was the "no fucks given" car. Maybe Elon doesnt give a fuck what people think. He's gonna do him. And some people will love that. If you don't, that's ok. Buy a C8. Or an Escalade. Or a Prius.

If you think Tesla is going to fail, you've focused too much on panel gaps and paint thickness. What you should be focused on are 10-14 year old kids. In 2 to 6 years they will be driving. A few years after that they will be buying their own cars. Most of them want a Tesla. Ask around...see what you think.

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TT - I think you may be a little too close to this and approaching fan-boi-ism. No one is arguing that the 2012 designed Model S is a good EV, we're talking about long term viability and profitability. I don't see a business case for Tesla long term. All the majors are coming for them and their "test" will soon dissolve into a poorly constructed business model laid bare for all to see. Continuing to build cars designed in 2012 (Model S) that have 20% declining sales, furthering the flawed business model by "appealing to the masses" with the Model 3 that loses $5,900 per unit and continuing to bleed off $1B in cash reserves every year is not viable long term. Hell, even my Hyundai Palisade has 80% of the driverless aids (as does the new Genesis GV80) and cost 40% off the Model X. Unlike Amazon, you're not building a sustainable or uncopy-able model, you're not using subscription (Prime) fees to line your pockets or build infrastructure - nor does Tesla's profitability improve with volume.....in fact it gets worse. That's just not sustainable, there's no horizon for Tesla to crest or overcome to make what they do profitable. They can't make money building and selling 2012 models, can't make money with more volume and sooner or later Wall Street will figure all of this out.
 

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Will say this.

I recently bought for clients, OOTM Puts for this short squeeze. It is a good downside limit of capital for potential reward.
 

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I had to stop after the point about kids not having posters of lambo and Ferrari lol.
No kid has a fucking tesla poster.


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I had to stop after the point about kids not having posters of lambo and Ferrari lol.
No kid has a fucking tesla poster.


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Ok, no posters. Is it Instagram these days?

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Flat plane baby.

 

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Living in the Bay Area Tesla's are everywhere. They have a big charging station next to my ATM. I always rev the V a little as I'm driving by while they waiting for car to charge so they can get home. One of these days I will pull in and plug the v in. Anyone asks I will say its hybrid burns gas & rubber.

On side note they get me off the line but I always catchup and pass.

Excited to see C8 I love the look. I May have to upgrade when they do Z08 package. Only mid engine cars I've driven (Porche Boxer does not count) are Ferraris 458 Italia & F430. Both amazing cars if you have the $$. I know the brakes on the 458 were 18k and maybe get 10k miles out of them. At least ceramic version. Loved being able to lay on the breaks and pull back both paddles and have car downshift on its own.
 

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I don't understand the fascination with the ring. I have been asked many times to go, the last bunch of times I was badgered by a guy I was racing with who runs tours. My statement of why the fuck would I want to go to Germany to do an HPDE event when I could race at SPA, Paul Ricard, Monza, pick one. Knowing that the course is long and has all the changes one could possibly want is great, let me ask you this: when was the last time you went flat out for 13 miles? Oh thats right NEVER.

I see Ring track maps on cars and I want to barf.

Olivier Gavin = Stud driver.
Honestly I agree with you, as none of our cars' capabilities are likely ever to be fully realized on the street even in stock form.

But as a litmus test, the Ring is as good as any: you need lots of power, an amazing suspension and the overall package to be dialed in to be competitive. It is a great synergy of "twisties" and "straights" to compliment a well rounded car. 12+ miles is a long time to really magnify any weaknesses a platform has - so doing well really does suggest you're at the pinnacle of automotive engineering.

Much like Ferrari / Porsche / BMW selling their cars on a perception of pedigree and bragging rights, even though the vast majority of these supercars are never driven.

An astute Consumer wants the best (whether they individually are capable of matching its capabilities) and the best needs a track time. The Ring is the closest we have to a universal measuring stick.

With that said, I'd personally rather drive Spa or P Ricard right next to you! But... that wont sell $300k Ferraris or give 'Muricans any bragging rights with their Caddys or Corvettes.

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